Edward Dewey established the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in the shadow of the Great Depression. He was searching for the cause of the greatest bust in American history, one in which the US economy contracted by a massive 30%.

Little did he know at the time - though he would later discover - was that the Depression was part of a regular cycle of boom and bust, one that went back to very beginning of the Republic. The boom of the 1920s led to the crisis of the early 1930s in much the same way as it had unfolded in the 1900s, the 1880s, the late 1860s/early 1870s, the 1850s, the 1830s and 1810s.

This cyclical rhythm is so regular, and so fundamental to our economies, that many analysts have built an investment strategy on it. The cycle lasts, on average (and with surprisingly little variation), 18.6 years. If you view history through the lens of this cycle, you can use it to make long-term forecasts and invest accordingly.

At the FSC conference in New York in June, I was pleased, on behalf of my company Property Sharemarket Economics (PSE), to present some of my research on this important cycle to delegates. And as the 18.6 year cycle is entwined with the story of the Foundation, we were honored to be one of the event’s sponsors.

PSE’s mission is to help you to “remember the future”. Our in-depth research on the 18.6 year cycle helps us forecast the main dynamics of the modern economy and provide subscribers with actionable insights.

This 18.6 year cycle continues to this very day. In the second half of the 20th century, it gave rise to the booms of the 1960s and the bust of the early 1970s, the boom of the 1980s and the severe contraction of the early 1990s. The 1990s boom and the housing bubble led to the global financial crisis.

As we move into 2026 we are 18 years on from the events of 2008. I need hardly remind you of what happened then. It’s therefore time to pay close attention to what’s going on in markets, the banking sector and the wider economy. Because, should history repeat, the next few years will be very turbulent indeed. If you think markets and events are disruptive now, just wait to see what will unfold in the years ahead.

Fortunately, by understanding this cycle you can stay ahead of events, be prepared for what’s to come and even take advantage of it.

To help you stay in touch with how the final years of the cycle will play out, I encourage you to sign up to our weekly newsletter, the Property Cycle Investor.

Join now. It’s completely free and you can access it here.

Wishing you well in the challenging times to come.

Yours sincerely,

Akhil Patel
Property Sharemarket Economics