We are incredibly grateful to the sponsors of Cycles in the City '26! The event was more than we could have imagined, and that is in large part because of their generosity.
The Foundation for the Study of Cycles was the primary sponsor of the entire event. That was made possible by donations and Membership dues.
Our Founding Benefactors
James Gavrity, Chairman and CEO of Title Guarantee, Inc. (TitleGuarantee.com).
Andrew Pancholi, FSC Board Member and CEO of Market Timing Report (MarketTimingReport.com).
Supporting Sponsor
Our Supporting Sponsor was Akhil Patel and Property Sharemarket Economics (PropertySharemarketEconomics.com).
Science Day Benefactor
Science Day, our opening day focused on cycles in science and nature, was made possible by our Science Day Patron, Ray Tomes, FSC Board Emeritus and founder of Radiance Trust. We are especially grateful to Ray for his longtime support of the Foundation and for contributing a special recorded presentation to this year’s program.
In an intimate and highly interactive setting, some of the most respected names in market cycles analysis gathered at Cycles in the City ’26 to exchange ideas, challenge assumptions, and explore the forces shaping markets, economies, and society.
Market legends and leading researchers including Larry Williams, Michael Howell, John Bollinger, Peter Borish, Harry Dent, and many others shared decades of hard-won insight — offering timely perspectives on debt and liquidity cycles, market turning points, trading psychology, and long-term economic patterns.
FSC leaders and longtime contributors including Dr. Richard Smith, Lars von Thienen, Jake Bernstein, Ray Tomes, Andrew Pancholi, Bill Sarubbi, and Ron William also took part, adding depth to a program that bridged both markets and science.
But as many attendees noted, the conference was about more than the presentations. It was about the conversations — in the hallways, over meals, and in breakout sessions — where ideas were tested, relationships deepened, and a stronger cycles community took shape.
From the main stage to the dinner table, Cycles in the City ’26 was more than a conference. It was a signal: The work of cycles research is accelerating, and the next chapter is already underway.
Keynote speaker Larry Williams: My Forecast for the Next Bear AND Bull Markets
FSC Chairman of the Board and Executive Director Dr. Richard Smith: Cyclics: The Science of Cycles and Applied Cyclics
Keynote Speaker Michael Howell: The Debt/Liquidity Cycle: The Approaching Supercycle That Dictates Financial Crises
Keynote Speaker John Bollinger: My History With Cycles
FSC Board Member Jake Bernstein: Cycles: The Undeniable Confluences That Ignited Global Events
FSC Board Member Lars von Thienen: Cycle Consensus Scoring: An Evolved Framework for Forecasting Economic and Market Cycles and AI-Powered Cycle Dashboard: Custom Tools for Serious Cycles Practitioners
FSC Board Member and Founding Benefactor Andrew Pancholi: Cycles:The Hidden Advantage
Guest Speaker and Supporting Sponsor Akhil Patel: Chaos and Crisis: 2026 and the Peak of the 18-Year Cycle
Special Guest Speaker Peter Borish: Trading Traps (in conversation with Dr. Richard Smith)
FSC Board Member Bill Sarubbi: Mid-Year Market Forecast 2026
Guest Speaker Tom McClellan: Using Insights From Physics to Understand Market Cycles
FSC Board Member Iain MacKay: Tidal Planets: Do Venus, Earth, and Jupiter Shape the Cycles of the Sun and the Economy?
FSC Development Director Ron William: Navigating the 2026 Cycle Convergence
Here are 2 monthly cycles, gold and oil, that are mirror images. Gold is headed lower and oil is due to move higher. Here are 4 graphs: monthly cycles and sentiment graphs that make the point.
As to gold, the initial peak in January was the start of an A wave. The March 2-3 top appears to be the start of a C wave (or a 3) down. The 23.6% retracement level has been passed. The 38.2% retracement level is $4,150, and the 50% retracement is $3,700. Here are the targets:
1.383 = $3,660
1.50 = $3,578
1.618 = $3,496
It appears that the low in this down move will be near $3,600-$3,700.
Sentiment is measured by dividing the leveraged gold ETF by its unleveraged ETF. Note the sentiment ratio has already begun to decline. The extreme bullishness is beginning to wane, but it is a long way from a buy signal.
Gold Monthly Cycle
UGL/GLD Gold Sentiment Ratio Has Hit The Sell Level
Here is the same approach as applied to the oil market.
After the sharp move up, price has not retreated by much. The rally created what appears to be a breakaway gap which usually marks the start of a move. The cycles still point up. It appears that a consolidation is underway, not lower prices. The price range runs from $87-$101.
From February 21 through May 21, price has increased 76.2% of the time for a 5.21% gain. This is true for any year. Because the monthly dynamic is also rising, the odds rise to over 83%.
These bullish readings imply that matters in the Gulf will not go well.
Oil Monthly Cycle
UCO/SCO Oil Sentiment Shows Pessimism
Bill Sarubbi Bio
cyclesresearch.com
Bill Sarubbi obtained his BS in 1971 and his MBA in 1972 from NYU, becoming a member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in the same year. He trained as a therapist under the direction of Dr. John Pierrakos in New York for nine years. From 1972 to 1990 he worked on the buy and sell sides of Wall Street as an analyst with the Value Line Investment Survey, as an institutional broker, and as a technical strategist with PaineWebber. From 1990 to 2004 Sarubbi was with the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, where he was a technology fund manager, North American strategist, and member of the currency hedging committee. Since 2004 he has been operating his own money management and consulting service. In the course of his work, he developed unique market analysis software. Sarubbi is a Forbes contributor and is active in groups that focus on the future and on cycles, including the Kenos Circle, a Vienna-based group of futurists. Sarubbi is based in Vienna.
NOTE: Prepared by FSC Board Member Bill Sarubbi. The views expressed are his own and not investment advice. This article is intended exclusively to provide information and education to help individuals better understand cycles and the markets. However, this information is not to be construed as professional advice as to the buying and selling of securities or other investment instruments. In no event does the host express any opinion with respect to, or make recommendations regarding, the purchase or sale of any particular security or other investment instrument. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities, and buying or selling decisions are solely within the personal discretion of each individual.
Soybean Prices - A 1986 Extrapolation
by Gertrude Shirk
Editor of the Cycles magazine and Vice President of the FSC
From the Archives: This article is reposted as it was published in Cycles Volume Thirty Seven - 1986.
The 1985 extrapolation of soybean prices, first published in the January/February 1985 issue of Cycles is reproduced below as Figure 1. The "How It Came Out" section of the actual price line is completed through December 1985. The prices used in this work are the average monthly cash price of No. 1 Yellow soybeans, Illinois Processor.
The yearly average on a calendar year basis of the calculated line for 1985 was $6.07 which compares to the actual calendar year average price of $5.64 that occurred. In early 1985, low level of the extrapolated calculated line was considered by some members interested in soybean prices to be unduly pessimistic. But, as it turned out, the calculated line ran consistently above the actual prices as they developed.
The calculated/actual price chart covers only five years, and a better perspective can be gained from the entire history of soybean prices. Figure 2 shows this history by crop years, beginning with the figure for the crop year 947-48, and continuing through 1984-85.
This chart is a ratio chart, one on which equal distances measure equal percentage changes. It is obvious that since soybeans have moved to a level of 60 cents and more that the percentage changes from year to year have been much greater than during the earlier period.
The end portion of Figure 2, beginning with the figure for 1972-73 is enlarged on Figure 3, and two possible trend lines are added. The level and direction of trend are important considerations because cycles operate around — above and below — the trend. Although it is tempting to consider the straight line trend as the best description of trend, it is also possible to arrive at a different description — as shown by the bowed line. The top straight line trend gives a 1985-6 value of $6.89 compared to about $6.50 for the curved line.
In any event, actual prices through February 1986 have been well below these trend levels for many months, and the yearly average trend that was used to prepare a 1986 calculated line averaged $5.75. By historical standards (the two trends on Figure 3) the value of $5.75 is low, but it is above the last eight month's experience.
The cycles that were combined with trend were the 12-month, the 24.56-month and the 38.6-month. The record of the 24.56-month cycle is shown on Figure 4, and the 38.6-month cycle is recorded on Figure 5. Both charts are marked to show how the cycle has performed since it was first defined.
The 24.56-month cycle has an average amplitude of 10% of trend at the time of an average crest. There was an ideal crest at May 1985, and the model pattern is now on the way down to a trough at May 1986.
The 38.6-month cycle has an average amplitude of 12% of trend at the time of an ideal crest. The ideal cycle is now going up to a crest at October 1986. Since the low on the seasonal cycle occurs at October, it will be interesting to see what is actually occurring to soybean prices come October.
The combination of the assumed trend and the three cycles is shown on Figure 6 as the broken line.
The cycles used here measure as being statistically significant. That is, the numbers are good. But, even more important is the degree to which these cycles have functioned since they were first postulated.
The average seasonal pattern in soybean prices that was used in the combination is as follows:
Of course, our interest is in the cycles. An extrapolation of the sort shown on Figure 6 will show not only how well the cycles operate, but will also test the conclusion about the best trend level to use. In addition, all the factors used can be seriously perturbed by random, non-cyclic occurrences.
NOTE: This article is intended exclusively to provide information and education to help individuals better understand cycles and the markets. However, this information is not to be construed as professional advice as to the buying and selling of securities or other investment instruments. In no event does the host express any opinion with respect to, or make recommendations regarding, the purchase or sale of any particular security or other investment instrument. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities, and buying or selling decisions are solely within the personal discretion of each individual.
By Iain MacKay, FSC Board Member
In the January/February 1986 issue of Cycles magazine, Gertrude Shirk reviewed the performance of cycles in soybean prices previously discussed in Cycles 50 years ago, in the February 1976 issue.
The article made some short-term forecasts based on 12-, 38.6-, and 24.56-month cycles. I wanted to see if a calibration of those cycles made in 1986 would have given a helpful forecast for the time ensuing since.
Our data source is FRED, courtesy the Federal Bank of St Louis.
This is their monthly history of the Soybean Producer Price Index since 1947. They use 1982 as the base for the index.
FRED — Producer Price Index by Commodity: Farm Products: Soybeans
Note: This analysis uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
In 2026 we can vibe code a model that best fits these three cycles to the period 1947 to February 1986 and see how well they have played out since then.
For convenience I used the price gradient (monthly proportionate difference) rather than the raw price, as it is less influenced by the long-term trend but should show similar cyclicity with price turning points occurring at gradient zeros.
A differential evolution algorithm calibrated the phase and amplitude of the gradients, using data from 1947 to 1986, which allows the cycle forecast gradient to be projected from 1986 to the present day and forward to 2030.
Here are the results of the projection, firstly for the last 50 years. The grey-shaded period shows projected gradient, with projected price highs and lows marked with red and green lines respectively.
Soybean Cycle Analysis: 1976 (Jan) - 2030 (Dec)
Looking more closely at the period 1980-2000:
Soybean Cycle Analysis: 1980 (Jan) - 2000 (Jan)
And the years 2020 to 2030:
Soybean Cycle Analysis: 2020 (Jan) - 2030 (Dec)
It is a matter of debate whether cyclic behaviour in financial time series is endogenous (down to the interaction of opposing forces within the system) or exogenous (driven by some external clock).
The distinction is more than academic, because the equations governing endogenous cycles are very sensitive to tiny changes in their parameters. Systems like these can be fundamentally chaotic and unpredictable. On the other hand, exogenous cycles endure over time, so they can be calibrated given sufficient data and they can be modelled with more tractable mathematics like Fourier analysis. While time-local circumstances can shift timing of individual cycles, in the long run the turning points for exogenous cycles remain close to predicted times.
Analysis like this brings evidence to the debate.
The work of the Foundation has identified many apparent exogenous cycles, the work to consolidate and explain them continues.
Iain MacKay Bio
Iain MacKay is the director and founder of Computable Functions Limited, which offers consulting in the application of advanced software technologies for market and survey research, as well as director and co-owner of X-MR Limited, a market research software development firm. MacKay was Deputy Chairman at Pulse Train Technology (now Confirmit), where he developed the company’s mainstream products for over 20 years. As director of UK development for Arbitron Corporation (now Neilson Audio), MacKay set up the development office in the UK. MacKay is based in the UK.
NOTE: Prepared by FSC Board Member Iain MacKay. The views expressed are his own and not investment advice. This article is intended exclusively to provide information and education to help individuals better understand cycles and the markets. However, this information is not to be construed as professional advice as to the buying and selling of securities or other investment instruments. In no event does the host express any opinion with respect to, or make recommendations regarding, the purchase or sale of any particular security or other investment instrument. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities, and buying or selling decisions are solely within the personal discretion of each individual.
By Bill Sarubbi, FSC Board Member
The U.S. stock market indices are likely headed higher into January. There are four reasons for this projection.
First, this is a year ending in a 5, the strongest year in the 10-year decennial pattern as developed by Edgar Laurence Smith at Ameritrust Bank. All questions in such "5" years are resolved on the upside. September has been the weakest month in any year, but this bearish month has closed on the upside 66% of the time in these "5" years. The weakest part of September has been the second half of the month, especially the last week. This period could present favorable buying opportunities.
DJIA Histogram of Expected Return in Years Ending in 5
Second, the combination of the 1-, 4- and, 10-year cycles is rising. The first cycle is the annual cycle in any year from 1885. The 4-year cycle has been called the election year cycle. Their summation is below.
1, 4, and 10-Year Cycles in 2025
Third, the dynamic cycle depicted below rises into January. This "catch all" approach accumulates the effect on the S&P of the strongest cycles. It detects cycles that may not be represented by the prior cycles.
S&P Monthly Cycle
And fourth, 60% of all S&P gains have been generated in Q4 of any year.
In order to project a price level, the height of the rectangle from which the S&P 500 broke out is projected up. This points to a price target of 7460.
S&P Daily
What stock should be considered for purchase for Q4? Below is a list of the S&P 100 stock sorted by a unique measure of relative strength. These shares are likely to extend their gains.
Bill Sarubbi Bio
cyclesresearch.com
Bill Sarubbi obtained his BS in 1971 and his MBA in 1972 from NYU, becoming a member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in the same year. He trained as a therapist under the direction of Dr. John Pierrakos in New York for nine years. From 1972 to 1990 he worked on the buy and sell sides of Wall Street as an analyst with the Value Line Investment Survey, as an institutional broker, and as a technical strategist with PaineWebber. From 1990 to 2004 Sarubbi was with the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, where he was a technology fund manager, North American strategist, and member of the currency hedging committee. Since 2004 he has been operating his own money management and consulting service. In the course of his work, he developed unique market analysis software. Sarubbi is a Forbes contributor and is active in groups that focus on the future and on cycles, including the Kenos Circle, a Vienna-based group of futurists. Sarubbi is based in Vienna.
NOTE: Prepared by FSC Board Member Bill Sarubbi. The views expressed are his own and not investment advice. This article is intended exclusively to provide information and education to help individuals better understand cycles and the markets. However, this information is not to be construed as professional advice as to the buying and selling of securities or other investment instruments. In no event does the host express any opinion with respect to, or make recommendations regarding, the purchase or sale of any particular security or other investment instrument. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities, and buying or selling decisions are solely within the personal discretion of each individual.
Since 2020, the Foundation for the Study of Cycles has been rebuilding – quietly, diligently – from remote corners of the globe. Piece by piece, we’ve advanced the science, restored the archives, and reimagined the future of cycles science.
The progress we’ve made is a shared triumph. It belongs to our Members, to the participants of the Live in ’25 conference, and to every person who’s tuned in to a YouTube interview, read a newsletter, or joined a conversation about cycles and their relevance to today’s world.
Live in ’25 marked a turning point. For the first time in years, we gathered in one room – not just to share research, but to celebrate community. And in that spirit, we paused to honor three extraordinary individuals who have been instrumental to the renaissance of the FSC.
Ray Tomes: Lifetime Achievement Award
Joining us live from New Zealand, FSC Science Director Ray Tomes was awarded the Lifetime Achievement Award for more than 50 years of pioneering cycles research. Tomes' work transcends disciplines in search of common patterns that shape the world around us. His unwavering curiosity and dedication to uncovering universal cycles have laid a foundation for generations to come.
Lars von Thienen: Innovative Brilliance Award
FSC Board Member and creator of the FSC cycles app, Lars von Thienen, received the Innovative Brilliance Award for his tireless contributions to cycles detection technology. Through his development of the market-leading cycles app and his weekly Market Cycles Report, Lars has made high-level cycles analysis accessible to traders, investors, and analysts – no matter their level of expertise. His work continues to set new standards for what’s possible in this field.
Dr. Richard Smith: Transformational Contribution Award
Dr. Richard Smith, FSC Chairman and Executive Director, was presented with the Transformational Contribution Award, honoring five years of vision, leadership, and deep personal commitment to rebuilding the FSC. From discovering the archives in a dusty Southern California storage unit to hosting a world-class conference at the SUNY Global Center in New York, Dr. Smith has worked to revive and realign the Foundation with the bold mission set forth by Founder Edward R. Dewey: to promote the understanding, application, and exploration of cycles to empower individuals and improve society.
These awards weren’t just a moment of recognition – they were a reminder of the passion, perseverance, and purpose driving the FSC forward.
As we build on the momentum of Live in ’25, we are more inspired than ever to continue this work – together.
We’re proud to announce a landmark collaboration between two organizations deeply committed to the future of market analysis and financial education: the Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC) and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).
Last week, during the Live in ’25 conference in New York City, FSC and IFTA formally signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) – a milestone that marks the beginning of an exciting new chapter in the global advancement of technical and cycles analysis.
A Shared Vision for Empowering Analysts Worldwide
This strategic partnership is built on a shared mission: to empower technical analysts and market practitioners with world-class training, cutting-edge research, and an engaged global community.
For decades, both FSC and IFTA have championed professional excellence in the field. This collaboration takes that commitment to the next level, creating opportunities for deeper learning, broader networking, and stronger professional influence.
Key Areas of Collaboration
The MoU outlines five core areas where FSC and IFTA will work together:
- Knowledge Sharing: Co-produced white papers, research, and webinars that explore technical and cycles analysis, market trends, and the evolution of the field.
- Professional Development: Joint training programs, workshops, and certifications to equip analysts with the tools they need to succeed in a fast-changing landscape.
- Events & Conferences: Co-branded events ranging from intimate roundtables to global summits – bringing together thought leaders, innovators, and rising stars.
- Networking & Community Building: Cross-membership benefits, priority access, and more ways for members to connect, collaborate, and grow.
- Advocacy & Industry Impact: Joint campaigns and policy initiatives aimed at shaping the future of our profession and elevating the role of analysis in financial decision-making.
Why This Matters Now
As financial markets grow more complex and interconnected, the need for skilled technical analysts has never been greater. Technical analysis offers powerful tools to decode market behavior, identify trends, and anticipate reversals – all through a disciplined, data-driven lens.
At the same time, cycles analysis adds a unique and vital dimension, highlighting the time-based rhythms that influence everything from stock prices and commodity markets to economic cycles and human behavior. With over 80 years of leadership in this space, FSC brings unmatched expertise in the study of recurring patterns rooted in both nature and finance.
By combining these two approaches – technical analysis and cycles analysis – this partnership equips professionals with a broader lens and a sharper edge.
What Comes Next
This is just the beginning. In the months ahead, FSC and IFTA members can look forward to:
- New co-branded educational programs
- Exclusive webinars and research insights
- High-impact joint events
- Expanded community engagement opportunities
Together, we’re building a stronger, smarter, and more connected future for the global technical analysis community.
We invite all members, partners, and fellow market practitioners to join us in this journey. Let’s shape what’s next – together.
In an intimate, highly interactive setting, market legends and pioneering researchers Larry Williams, Peter Eliades, Sherman McClellan, Akhil Patel, Peter Borish, and more shared decades of insights.
FSC all-stars including Dr. Richard Smith, Lars von Thienen, Jake Bernstein, Ray Tomes, Andrew Pancholi, Bill Sarubbi, and Ron William passed the torch to a new generation of cycles explorers, continuing the grand tradition of mentorship and discovery.
Attendees didn’t just listen, they participated, connected, and laid the foundation for a stronger, more unified community. The conference also previewed groundbreaking new tools designed to make cycles analysis more powerful and accessible to all, regardless of background or experience.
From the main stage to the dinner table, Live in ’25 wasn’t just a conference. It was a reunion, a launchpad, and a signal: The next great chapter in cycles science is underway.
Here are some special moments from the event:
So many unforgettable moments at the Live in ’25 conference in NYC last week – but Peter Borish dropping in to share his wisdom with a new generation of cycles explorers was truly a highlight. We’re so grateful for his presence and insight!
Market legends Sherman McClellan, Peter Eliades, and Larry Williams didn’t just deliver brilliant presentations at Live in ’25 – they stayed, connected, and shared generously with attendees throughout the conference. Their presence made this gathering truly unforgettable.
Larry Williams and Tom McClellan collaborate.
FSC Chairman Dr. Richard Smith, Board Member Bill Sarubbi, and Masters Working Group Member and frequent contributor Stan Harley at one of the nightly receptions hosted on SUNY Global Center’s terrace café.
Presenter Christopher Carolan and Masters Working Group Member Bruno Estier talk cycles.
Masters Working Group Member Sven Haile and FSC Board Members Iain McKay and Andrew Pancholi celebrating on the SUNY Global Center terrace café.
