By Bill Sarubbi, FSC Board Member
The U.S. stock market indices are likely headed higher into January. There are four reasons for this projection.
First, this is a year ending in a 5, the strongest year in the 10-year decennial pattern as developed by Edgar Laurence Smith at Ameritrust Bank. All questions in such "5" years are resolved on the upside. September has been the weakest month in any year, but this bearish month has closed on the upside 66% of the time in these "5" years. The weakest part of September has been the second half of the month, especially the last week. This period could present favorable buying opportunities.
DJIA Histogram of Expected Return in Years Ending in 5
Second, the combination of the 1-, 4- and, 10-year cycles is rising. The first cycle is the annual cycle in any year from 1885. The 4-year cycle has been called the election year cycle. Their summation is below.
1, 4, and 10-Year Cycles in 2025
Third, the dynamic cycle depicted below rises into January. This "catch all" approach accumulates the effect on the S&P of the strongest cycles. It detects cycles that may not be represented by the prior cycles.
S&P Monthly Cycle
And fourth, 60% of all S&P gains have been generated in Q4 of any year.
In order to project a price level, the height of the rectangle from which the S&P 500 broke out is projected up. This points to a price target of 7460.
S&P Daily
What stock should be considered for purchase for Q4? Below is a list of the S&P 100 stock sorted by a unique measure of relative strength. These shares are likely to extend their gains.
Bill Sarubbi Bio
cyclesresearch.com
Bill Sarubbi obtained his BS in 1971 and his MBA in 1972 from NYU, becoming a member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in the same year. He trained as a therapist under the direction of Dr. John Pierrakos in New York for nine years. From 1972 to 1990 he worked on the buy and sell sides of Wall Street as an analyst with the Value Line Investment Survey, as an institutional broker, and as a technical strategist with PaineWebber. From 1990 to 2004 Sarubbi was with the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, where he was a technology fund manager, North American strategist, and member of the currency hedging committee. Since 2004 he has been operating his own money management and consulting service. In the course of his work, he developed unique market analysis software. Sarubbi is a Forbes contributor and is active in groups that focus on the future and on cycles, including the Kenos Circle, a Vienna-based group of futurists. Sarubbi is based in Vienna.
NOTE: Prepared by FSC Board Member Bill Sarubbi. The views expressed are his own and not investment advice. This article is intended exclusively to provide information and education to help individuals better understand cycles and the markets. However, this information is not to be construed as professional advice as to the buying and selling of securities or other investment instruments. In no event does the host express any opinion with respect to, or make recommendations regarding, the purchase or sale of any particular security or other investment instrument. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities, and buying or selling decisions are solely within the personal discretion of each individual.
Since 2020, the Foundation for the Study of Cycles has been rebuilding – quietly, diligently – from remote corners of the globe. Piece by piece, we’ve advanced the science, restored the archives, and reimagined the future of cycles science.
The progress we’ve made is a shared triumph. It belongs to our Members, to the participants of the Live in ’25 conference, and to every person who’s tuned in to a YouTube interview, read a newsletter, or joined a conversation about cycles and their relevance to today’s world.
Live in ’25 marked a turning point. For the first time in years, we gathered in one room – not just to share research, but to celebrate community. And in that spirit, we paused to honor three extraordinary individuals who have been instrumental to the renaissance of the FSC.
Ray Tomes: Lifetime Achievement Award
Joining us live from New Zealand, FSC Science Director Ray Tomes was awarded the Lifetime Achievement Award for more than 50 years of pioneering cycles research. Tomes' work transcends disciplines in search of common patterns that shape the world around us. His unwavering curiosity and dedication to uncovering universal cycles have laid a foundation for generations to come.
Lars von Thienen: Innovative Brilliance Award
FSC Board Member and creator of the FSC cycles app, Lars von Thienen, received the Innovative Brilliance Award for his tireless contributions to cycles detection technology. Through his development of the market-leading cycles app and his weekly Market Cycles Report, Lars has made high-level cycles analysis accessible to traders, investors, and analysts – no matter their level of expertise. His work continues to set new standards for what’s possible in this field.
Dr. Richard Smith: Transformational Contribution Award
Dr. Richard Smith, FSC Chairman and Executive Director, was presented with the Transformational Contribution Award, honoring five years of vision, leadership, and deep personal commitment to rebuilding the FSC. From discovering the archives in a dusty Southern California storage unit to hosting a world-class conference at the SUNY Global Center in New York, Dr. Smith has worked to revive and realign the Foundation with the bold mission set forth by Founder Edward R. Dewey: to promote the understanding, application, and exploration of cycles to empower individuals and improve society.
These awards weren’t just a moment of recognition – they were a reminder of the passion, perseverance, and purpose driving the FSC forward.
As we build on the momentum of Live in ’25, we are more inspired than ever to continue this work – together.
We’re proud to announce a landmark collaboration between two organizations deeply committed to the future of market analysis and financial education: the Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC) and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).
Last week, during the Live in ’25 conference in New York City, FSC and IFTA formally signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) – a milestone that marks the beginning of an exciting new chapter in the global advancement of technical and cycles analysis.
A Shared Vision for Empowering Analysts Worldwide
This strategic partnership is built on a shared mission: to empower technical analysts and market practitioners with world-class training, cutting-edge research, and an engaged global community.
For decades, both FSC and IFTA have championed professional excellence in the field. This collaboration takes that commitment to the next level, creating opportunities for deeper learning, broader networking, and stronger professional influence.
Key Areas of Collaboration
The MoU outlines five core areas where FSC and IFTA will work together:
- Knowledge Sharing: Co-produced white papers, research, and webinars that explore technical and cycles analysis, market trends, and the evolution of the field.
- Professional Development: Joint training programs, workshops, and certifications to equip analysts with the tools they need to succeed in a fast-changing landscape.
- Events & Conferences: Co-branded events ranging from intimate roundtables to global summits – bringing together thought leaders, innovators, and rising stars.
- Networking & Community Building: Cross-membership benefits, priority access, and more ways for members to connect, collaborate, and grow.
- Advocacy & Industry Impact: Joint campaigns and policy initiatives aimed at shaping the future of our profession and elevating the role of analysis in financial decision-making.
Why This Matters Now
As financial markets grow more complex and interconnected, the need for skilled technical analysts has never been greater. Technical analysis offers powerful tools to decode market behavior, identify trends, and anticipate reversals – all through a disciplined, data-driven lens.
At the same time, cycles analysis adds a unique and vital dimension, highlighting the time-based rhythms that influence everything from stock prices and commodity markets to economic cycles and human behavior. With over 80 years of leadership in this space, FSC brings unmatched expertise in the study of recurring patterns rooted in both nature and finance.
By combining these two approaches – technical analysis and cycles analysis – this partnership equips professionals with a broader lens and a sharper edge.
What Comes Next
This is just the beginning. In the months ahead, FSC and IFTA members can look forward to:
- New co-branded educational programs
- Exclusive webinars and research insights
- High-impact joint events
- Expanded community engagement opportunities
Together, we’re building a stronger, smarter, and more connected future for the global technical analysis community.
We invite all members, partners, and fellow market practitioners to join us in this journey. Let’s shape what’s next – together.
In an intimate, highly interactive setting, market legends and pioneering researchers Larry Williams, Peter Eliades, Sherman McClellan, Akhil Patel, Peter Borish, and more shared decades of insights.
FSC all-stars including Dr. Richard Smith, Lars von Thienen, Jake Bernstein, Ray Tomes, Andrew Pancholi, Bill Sarubbi, and Ron William passed the torch to a new generation of cycles explorers, continuing the grand tradition of mentorship and discovery.
Attendees didn’t just listen, they participated, connected, and laid the foundation for a stronger, more unified community. The conference also previewed groundbreaking new tools designed to make cycles analysis more powerful and accessible to all, regardless of background or experience.
From the main stage to the dinner table, Live in ’25 wasn’t just a conference. It was a reunion, a launchpad, and a signal: The next great chapter in cycles science is underway.
Here are some special moments from the event:
So many unforgettable moments at the Live in ’25 conference in NYC last week – but Peter Borish dropping in to share his wisdom with a new generation of cycles explorers was truly a highlight. We’re so grateful for his presence and insight!
Market legends Sherman McClellan, Peter Eliades, and Larry Williams didn’t just deliver brilliant presentations at Live in ’25 – they stayed, connected, and shared generously with attendees throughout the conference. Their presence made this gathering truly unforgettable.
Larry Williams and Tom McClellan collaborate.
FSC Chairman Dr. Richard Smith, Board Member Bill Sarubbi, and Masters Working Group Member and frequent contributor Stan Harley at one of the nightly receptions hosted on SUNY Global Center’s terrace café.
Presenter Christopher Carolan and Masters Working Group Member Bruno Estier talk cycles.
Masters Working Group Member Sven Haile and FSC Board Members Iain McKay and Andrew Pancholi celebrating on the SUNY Global Center terrace café.
By Bill Sarubbi, FSC Board Member
The S&P and NASDAQ indices, both weighted and unweighted, have broken out of consolidations. The cycles for both indices point up, so higher quotes are likely. The prior resistance is now support, and price is sitting just above these support areas. This establishes an attractive reward/risk ratio in each market. Newsletter writers have gone from bullish to very bearish quickly. And now the AAII survey has more bears than any time in the last year.
In the summer of 2024, I noted that the stock market was likely to move higher. However, the big tech leaders were seen to be too extended and due for a correction. If the market was to move higher and the tech leaders were to correct, then other stocks would have to start outperforming, which has been the case. Let us analyze the prospects for these stocks through the use of cycles.
The relative strength of the equally weighted NASDAQ versus the S&P 500 turned up in late December and remains strong. This indicates that the average stock in the NDX 100 is stronger than the cap-weighted S&P 500. The big-cap tech stocks have been lagging while the smaller weights in the index have been rising. The result: Many more stocks are rising, but the equities that have the greatest influence on the indices have lagged. This is in sharp contrast to the situation in 2024 in which only 25% of the stocks outperformed the S&P 500.
The relative strength screen shows that within the NASDAQ 100, the big 8 tech stocks are ranked from number 6 (Netflix) to number 75 (Microsoft). Here are the stocks in relative strength order with the cycles' recommendations in parentheses:
- Netflix (hold)
- Meta Platforms (sell)
- Tesla (buy)
- NVIDIA (sell)
- Amazon (sell)
- Apple (hold)
- Google (sell)
- Microsoft (cycle low in March)
This monthly cycle explains the buy signal on Tesla:
Tesla Monthly Cycle
Here is another picture that explains the sell opinion on NVIDIA:
NVIDIA Monthly Cycle
The top 5 NASDAQ current relative performers are:
- Palantir
- Super Micro Computer
- Axon
- Atlassian
- DoorDash
From these new leaders, here are the stocks that can be added to portfolios now.
Super Micro came down hard, bottomed, and is now giving longer-term buy signals, supported by rising cycles.
Super Micro Daily, Weekly, and Monthly
Atlassian features technical strength and a rising monthly cycle.
Atlassian Monthly Cycle
Bill Sarubbi Bio
cyclesresearch.com
Bill Sarubbi obtained his BS in 1971 and his MBA in 1972 from NYU, becoming a member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in the same year. He trained as a therapist under the direction of Dr. John Pierrakos in New York for nine years. From 1972 to 1990 he worked on the buy and sell sides of Wall Street as an analyst with the Value Line Investment Survey, as an institutional broker, and as a technical strategist with PaineWebber. From 1990 to 2004 Sarubbi was with the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, where he was a technology fund manager, North American strategist, and member of the currency hedging committee. Since 2004 he has been operating his own money management and consulting service. In the course of his work, he developed unique market analysis software. Sarubbi is a Forbes contributor and is active in groups that focus on the future and on cycles, including the Kenos Circle, a Vienna-based group of futurists. Sarubbi is based in Vienna.
NOTE: This article is intended exclusively to provide information and education to help individuals better understand cycles and the markets. However, this information is not to be construed as professional advice as to the buying and selling of securities or other investment instruments. In no event does the host express any opinion with respect to, or make recommendations regarding, the purchase or sale of any particular security or other investment instrument. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities, and buying or selling decisions are solely within the personal discretion of each individual.
By Edward R. Dewey
FSC Founder
From the Archives: This article is reposted as it was published in 1970 in the Journal of Interdisciplinary Cycle Research - Volume 1.
Probably more than a thousand scientists, the world over, have studied rhythmic behaviour of one sort or another. They have reported over 500 different sorts of phenomena which have been alleged to fluctuate rhythmically, i.e., in cycles or waves of reasonable regularity. Rhythmic cycles characterize the abundance of animals, the variations of weather, the recurrence of diseases and epidemics, the repetition of basic physiological phenomena, the ups and downs of business, the widths of tree rings, the fluctuations of lake levels, the thickness of sedimentary rock deposits, the outbreak of volcanic eruptions, the occurrence of earthquakes, the number of sunspots, etc., almost endlessly.
The problems of rhythmic behaviour in all these various and unrelated phenomena have, however, one thing in common: The techniques of time series analysis should be largely the same, regardless of the nature of the phenomena being studied. A 9.6-year cycle in wolf abundance in Canada should be studied, statistically, in much the same way as a 9.6-year cycle in the run-off of a river in India.
Moreover, all the various cycles that have been found have one thing in common: When they are statistically significant, i.e., when they have repeated with enough dominance and enough regularity and enough times so that they cannot reasonably be the result of chance, they help us to throw light on the future. They do this whether our interest is in international conflict, immigration, earthquakes, solar radiation, meteorological, economic, biological or medical cycles. However, these two points of similarity in TECHNIQUE and USE are not, by themselves sufficient reason to propagate interdisciplinary cycle research.
When comparative studies are made of the cycles alleged to be present in various scientific fields, it is found that the periods are often the same. This is true not only for phenomena in the same discipline, but for completely unrelated phenomena. Of course, in many instances similarity in cycle periods may occur by sheer coincidence. However, there seems to be a non-chance distribution of the observed periods, i.e., many examples of certain periods are found but few or no examples of other periods. Moreover, cycles with the same period tend to have a turning point at the same calendar time regardless of phenomena or discipline. At this point, cycles become a matter of interdisciplinary concern.
Naturally, some of the cycles that have been alleged are merely accidental regularities of random fluctuations. On the other hand, there are reasons for thinking that many of the cycles are meaningful. For instance, many cycles have high statistical significance; they continue over many repetitions and continue over long spans of time unchanged, despite changed environmental conditions; cycles often dominate the behaviour of animals and man; they often show evidence of geographical patterns, i.e., cycles of the same period, regardless of phenomena, seem to come later and later as found from pole to equator; after distortion, cycles revert to the predistortion phase.
It is often assumed that many of the biological cycles have an endogenous origin. Such endogenous cycles can have high statistical significance, can repeat many times with great regularity, can be dominant, and, by shear coincidence, could have more or less the same period.
On the other hand, it would be extraordinary difficult for cycles of the same period in completely unrelated phenomena to turn at approximately the same time and to have geographical latitude patterns, unless the cause of the regularity were external to the phenomena involved.
The suggestion is thus inescapable that there may be hitherto unsuspected environmental forces which affect terrestrial affairs and determine the time of the ups and downs of many phenomena of interest and concern to mankind. Studies in recent years suggesting very long-term rhythmic fluctuations in a number of biological, medical, and inorganic phenomena strongly support this assumption. Under these circumstances the subject of comparative cycle study would thus seem to be a must for further investigation.
Some people will be interested to explore these possibilities. However, more scientists will prefer to confine their studies to cycles in their own disciplines. People with the latter interest can be most helpful to the major field of interdisciplinary study if they will determine the period of the cycles they study with the greatest possible accuracy; determine, in each instance, its statistical significance; record the latitude and longitude of the phenomenon evidencing the cycle; supply the data; explain the methodology in full; idealize the cycle, and, as important as anything, record the timing of the idealized cycle. Such studies are the bricks of which the larger structure is created.
No one can say whether or not the bricks are more important than the building. We need both. One must work in the area of one's interest. However, if it should be true that there are environmental forces that cause, or at least trigger and/or time the ups and downs of all aspects of human life, it becomes a matter of profound practical and philosophical importance and a challenge for every scientist interested in the broader aspects of the problems of the living world.
by Jake Bernstein, FSC Board Member
© 2024
Cycles in economic data are not perfect or symmetrical. I use other tools to confirm cyclical turns. We also know that, given the rules of effective and consistent risk management, cyclical market behavior can and should occupy a key role in the management and/or trading of financial assets.
To use cycles effectively you need a trigger to confirm a top or bottom. Most often these are referred to as timing indicators. Shown below (Figure 1) is the chart I showed in a past article. It indicates my expectation of a cyclical low. Figure 2 (below) shows the current chart along with one of my timing indicators.)
Fig. 1: Approximate 8.17-year cycle in Japanese yen futures versus U.S. dollar
Status
My long-term forecast in the Japanese yen versus U.S. dollar index futures is currently of continued interest, not only pragmatically but intellectually as well. Figure 1 is the approximate 8- to 9-year (average 8.17-year) cyclical pattern in Japanese yen futures versus U.S. dollar, as it was when I first wrote about it in July. Although not perfect and not fully symmetrical, the cycle does “pick” the major up and down moves. The projection is shown at the right.
Do note that the cycle was obtained by visual examination of the available data; it has not been “discovered” through the application of any cycle finder program. Yes, the data history is limited but the cycle accuracy is impressive. (Note also that this analysis is not a buy or sell recommendation.)
What the Cycle Says Now
The cycle now suggests that a low is possible at any time. As soon as my timing indicators in this market turn bullish, I will be on board for what should be a major move up in yen vs. dollar Forex and futures. If the cycle holds true, the next few years should prove to be very bullish for yen/dollar. And now it becomes a game of patience!
It's important to note that while historical patterns can provide some guidance, they are not guaranteed to repeat exactly. Market conditions and external factors can always introduce variability.
Figure 2: Cycle low developing
(Charts courtesy tradenavigator.com)
About Jake Bernstein, FSC Board Member
Jake Bernstein has been publishing Jake Bernstein's Weekly Futures Trading Letter since 1972 and trading futures and stocks since 1968. His forecasts and opinions are quoted regularly in the financial press and on financial websites, and he is frequently interviewed on radio and television throughout the U.S. and Canada, including Wall Street Week, CNBC, JagFN.TV, and WebTV.com. In addition to speaking extensively in the U.S., Canada, Europe, and Asia, Bernstein is a consultant for investors, traders, industry, financial institutions, brokerage firms, and commercial firms. Floor traders, professional traders, money managers, and hedgers, both new and experienced, subscribe to his market advisory services. Bernstein is based in California, U.S.
by Jake Bernstein, FSC Board Member
Written: 26 August 2024
©2024
My last article in the FSC newsletter (July 25, 2024) discussed and illustrated my long-term cycle in the yen/U.S. dollar relationship. I showed the approximate 8.17-cycle (Figure 1 below) and stated that the cycle was bottoming.
My intent was to highlight a market that was, in my view, positioned for a major price move against the U.S. dollar and other currencies. Because we know that cycles in economic data are not perfect or symmetrical, we use other tools to confirm cyclical turns.
We also know that, given the rules of effective and consistent risk management, cyclical market behavior can and should occupy a key role in the management and/or trading of financial assets. This brief but well-illustrated follow-up shows what has transpired since my last article.
Long-Term Cycles Forecast: Yen/Dollar
My long-term forecast in the Japanese yen versus U.S. dollar futures is currently of particular interest, not only pragmatically but academically. Shown below is the approximate 8- to 9-year cyclical pattern (average 8.17-year) in Japanese yen futures versus U.S. dollar exactly as it was shown in the last report.
Although not perfect and not fully symmetrical, the cycle does “pick” the major up and down oscillations. The trend projection is shown on the right. Note that the cycle was obtained by visual examination of the available data; it has not been discovered through the application of any cycle finder program. Yes, the data history is limited, but the cycle accuracy is impressive. (Note, this analysis is not a buy or sell recommendation).
What the Cycle Says Right Now When Combined With Timing
The cycle as discussed in my last article suggested that a low was possible at any time. In my work, I combine timing with cycles to compensate for the inherent imperfection of cycles.
Therefore, as soon as my timing indicators in this market turned positive, I was confident that a major move up in yen vs. dollar forex and futures had started. If the cycle holds true, the next few years should prove to be very bullish for the yen/dollar.
Figure 1: Approximate 8.17-year cycle in Japanese yen futures versus U.S. dollar index futures
(Chart courtesy tradenavigator.com)
Figure 2: A closer look at the approximate 8.17-year cycle in Japanese yen futures versus U.S. dollar index futures
(Chart courtesy tradenavigator.com)
Figure 3: What has happened since my forecast
(Chart courtesy tradenavigator.com)
It's important to note that while historical patterns can provide some guidance, they are not guaranteed to repeat exactly. Market conditions and external factors can always introduce variability, which is why I use timing indicators to confirm timing. Shown below is the expansion/contraction indicator that triggered a cycle low (expansioncontraction.com).
Figure 4: Expansion/contraction indicator with yen ETF
(Chart courtesy wealthcharts.com)
About Jake Bernstein, FSC Board Member
Jake Bernstein has been publishing Jake Bernstein's Weekly Futures Trading Letter since 1972 and trading futures and stocks since 1968. His forecasts and opinions are quoted regularly in the financial press and on financial websites, and he is frequently interviewed on radio and television throughout the U.S. and Canada, including Wall Street Week, CNBC, JagFN.TV, and WebTV.com. In addition to speaking extensively in the U.S., Canada, Europe, and Asia, Bernstein is a consultant for investors, traders, industry, financial institutions, brokerage firms, and commercial firms. Floor traders, professional traders, money managers, and hedgers, both new and experienced, subscribe to his market advisory services. Bernstein is based in California, U.S.
by Jake Bernstein, FSC Board Member
© 2024
In my fledgling days as an investor in the late 1960s, I discovered the magic of cycles and other cyclical patterns in the stock and futures markets. The beauty of repetitive price and time inspired wonder as well as challenge. The deeper I looked at cycles in the capital markets, the more convinced I became of their value, not only as a forecasting tool but as a means of more effectively managing economies, investments, trading, and commodity production. The field of cyclical analysis writ large, has fueled literally hundreds of books and thousands of research studies. For this, we can thank Edward R. Dewey, the father of cyclical analysis.
My intent in this brief report is to highlight a market that is, in my view, positioned for a major price move. Because we know that cycles in economic data are not perfect or symmetrical, we use other tools to confirm cyclical turns. We also know that, given the rules of effective and consistent risk management, cyclical market behavior can and should occupy a key role in the management and/or trading of financial assets.
Long-Term versus Short-Term Cycles
I am neither a mathematician nor an economist. I am, however, a pragmatist. I do not spend my time pondering the ontology of cycles; rather I prefer to use them as tools for predicting and investing in large, and often long-term market trends. The 17- to 18-year cycle in real estate, for example, has allowed me to be profitable in every real estate transaction I have ever done. Furthermore, the longer-term cycles such as the 10-year cycle (per Schumpeter) and the three- to four-year business cycles have also facilitated my ability to successfully forecast price trends.
The Here and Now
My long-term forecast in the Japanese yen versus U.S. dollar futures is currently of particular interest, not only pragmatically but intellectually. Shown below is the approximate eight- to nine-year (average 8.17 year) cyclical pattern in Japanese yen futures versus U.S. dollar. Although not perfect and not fully symmetrical, the cycle does pick the major up and down moves. The projection is shown at the right. Do note that the cycle was obtained by visual examination of the available data; it has not been discovered through the application of any cycle finder program. Yes, the data history is limited but the cycle accuracy is impressive. (Note also that this analysis is not a buy or sell recommendation.)
CHART: Approximate 8.17-year cycle in Japanese yen futures versus U.S. dollar
(Chart courtesy of tradenavigator.com)
What the Cycle Says Right Now
The cycle now suggests that a low is possible at any time. I combine timing with cycles to compensate for the inherent imperfection of cycles. Therefore, as soon as my timing indicators in this market turn bullish, I will be on board for what should be a major move up in yen vs. dollar forex and futures. If the cycle holds true, the next few years should prove to be very bullish for yen/dollar.
Reasons
For me, no fundamental justifications are necessary. Typically, these justifications or explanations come after a turn has been made. Those looking for reasons why might want to consider the following factors, which could confirm the cyclical expectations.
As stated and illustrated above, the JPY/USD exchange rate has exhibited cyclical patterns, often with cycles of approximately seven to eight years. These cycles can be influenced by numerous factors such as interest rate differentials, economic growth rates, trade balances, and geopolitical stability.
For 2023, if we consider the historical cyclical pattern, we might expect a low now in the JPY/USD exchange rate. This could be influenced by factors such as:
- Interest Rate Policies: If the Bank of Japan maintains low interest rates while the U.S. Federal Reserve raises rates, it could put downward pressure on the yen.
- Economic Conditions: Japan's economic performance relative to the U.S. could also play a role. If Japan's economy underperforms, it could lead to a weaker yen.
- Geopolitical Factors: Any geopolitical tensions or uncertainties could impact the yen's value as a safe-haven currency. I will issue an update, as necessary.
It's important to note that, while historical patterns can provide some guidance, they are not guaranteed to repeat exactly. Market conditions and external factors can always introduce variability.
About Jake Bernstein, FSC Board Member
Jake Bernstein has been publishing Jake Bernstein's Weekly Futures Trading Letter since 1972 and trading futures and stocks since 1968. His forecasts and opinions are quoted regularly in the financial press and on financial websites, and he is frequently interviewed on radio and television throughout the U.S. and Canada, including Wall Street Week, CNBC, JagFN.TV, and WebTV.com. In addition to speaking extensively in the U.S., Canada, Europe, and Asia, Bernstein is a consultant for investors, traders, industry, financial institutions, brokerage firms, and commercial firms. Floor traders, professional traders, money managers, and hedgers, both new and experienced, subscribe to his market advisory services. Bernstein is based in California, U.S.