We are thrilled to announce that Ron William has agreed to join the FSC as the new Development Director.
"The development and growth of the FSC, building on the vision and heritage of Edward R. Dewey, is an important mission, especially for future generations ahead," said William.
Ron William, CFTe, is a market strategist and educator/mentor with more than 20 years of experience working for leading economic research and institutional firms and producing tactical research and trading strategies. He specializes in global, multi-asset, top-down framework, grounded in behavioral technical analysis, driven by cycles based on the "Roadmap" signature model of veteran market technician Robin Griffiths, published in his book Mapping the Markets.
Ron also applies a "market and mind" approach at IntensiChi, using the latest techniques in behavioral-risk models and neuroscience sourced from expert groups. He further supplements with mentoring/coaching, trained by the International Coaching Federation (ICF), and teaches a regulatory approved masterclass in Applied Behavioral Science with investment, private banks, and CFA Societies.
Ron's primary work, as part of his current institutional market advisory firm (RWA), acquired global industry recognition as winner of “Best FX Research” in 2020. Financial media programs and industry publications regularly feature his market insights, including Is the big cycle about to turn?, predicting the 2020 crash and alerting the “Minsky paradigm” of 2020 H2-2022.
Driven by high-integrity education, Ron serves as part of the education committee of the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA), heads the SAMT Geneva Chapter, and is an honorary member of ESTA. He is also a visiting lecturer at leading universities, active guest speaker for the CFA, CAIA and CISI, and senior teacher at colleges offering an accredited diploma in trading and investing.
It is with a deep appreciation for the contributions of Richard Mogey to the Foundation for the Study of Cycles that we share with you the sad news of his recent passing.
Richard took on the role of Executive Director of the FSC back in 1990 and shepherded the FSC through over two decades during difficult times. Through it all, Richard tirelessly carried on the true tradition of Edward Dewey in determining accurate cycles periods and phases and curating valuable data. He answered cycles skeptics with accurate data, impeccable results, and considerable grace. Moreover, he was a great help to countless other cycles researchers over the years, many of whom cite Richard’s influence over their own work.
The passing of Richard is a great loss to the cycles community. We will miss him and remember his dedication and integrity.
We are very saddened to report that Mark McVey, our Chief Operating Officer, has passed away. He has been an invaluable part of managing the daily operations of the FSC since early 2020.
The Board and staff will deeply miss his exuberant energy and enthusiasm. Beyond his meaningful work with the FSC, he was a really good person – kind, quick to laugh, and genuinely caring. He had a profound respect and fondness for our Membership, and his dedication to furthering the FSC’s mission was second only to his love of being a father. Our thoughts are with his family.
Because Mark was doing most of the day-to-day work, we ask that you please bear with us as we pick up the pieces and redistribute his responsibilities.
Thank you for your continued support.
May 28-30 is likely a low. The period of May-June, EOM strength will begin on May 31 and run to June 12. This period has been up 64.4% of the time. The expected return is the sixth highest of the 12 months. June is likely to be a positive month. This period of strong seasonality is supported by dynamic cycles. Below, are both the daily and the weekly S&P cycles. The buy signals have been accurate 92% of the time (10 of 12) in the last year. All 6 weekly buy signals have been profitable. The combination of this trio of rhythms will likely propel the S&P to 4250 and higher.
We are thrilled to announce the release of a new upgraded version of the Cycles Scanner, Cycles Scanner: Analyst. Available to Members only, this powerful cycles analysis tool is unrivaled!
When you are a Member, full use of Cycles Scanner: Basic is included in the $150 Membership fee. The new upgraded Cycles Scanner: Analyst offers enhanced features that are essential for advanced cycles analysis.
Special offer: $250 savings for the next 30 days only!
Once you are a Member, the cost of Cycles Scanner: Analyst is $99 a month or $849 for a year.
However, if you upgrade to Cycles Scanner: Analyst by June 25, 2021, you can get the annual upgrade for the extremely low price of $599 for the first year! That is a $250 savings!
Learn more about Cycles Scanner: Analyst
Click here for your discount code and instructions on how to upgrade.
The Cycles Scanner is the best cycles analysis tool on the market today. Don't miss this opportunity!
Another exceptional issue of Cycles Magazine is out! This special Earth Day issue features a reprint of one of the most important papers in the history of the Foundation, The Case for Cycles by our Founder, Edward R. Dewey. This timeless piece is as relevant today as it was when it was first published in the July 1967 issue of Cycles Magazine.
In this issue, you can also read:
- Harvey Hahn: Exploring Gann’s Cycles-Based Forecasts
- John A. Goldstone and Peter Turchin: Welcome to the ‘Turbulent Twenties’
- Boris Pogos: When Ominous Stock Market Cycles Align
Cycles Magazine is a quarterly publication that showcases the work of Members and cycles researchers from all over the world. It is exciting to see more and more Members submitting their cycles research. We hope you will participate by submitting your research.
Cycles Magazine is our commitment to preserve and sustain the heritage of the FSC and advance Founder Edward R. Dewey’s original vision of the FSC as a not-for-profit institution dedicated to discovering and promoting a new science of cycles.
We are thrilled to announce that the Member Forum is live.
Network with some of the world's most respected authorities in cycles analysis and research. This is a collaborative space for Members only. If you are not a Member, join today!
We ask that you observe common-sense rules:
- Be courteous and considerate. It is permissible to respectfully disagree with others.
- Familiarize yourself with the categories and add content and questions in the related category.
- Do not post content unrelated to cycles.
Unofficial moderators will monitor the Forum, however we hope it will be a Member-regulated space. Inappropriate content will be moved to the appropriate category or removed, if necessary.
The link to the Member Forum is: Forum.Cycles.org
Please let us know what you think!
In this short but fascinating video, FSC Board Member Andrew Pancholi gives us a cycles lesson about history (or a history lesson about cycles).
Take a look at an 82- to 84-year cycle of disruption, revolution and great change, from the history of world events to Harry and Megan and turmoil in the British Royal Family.
In our ongoing commitment to encourage and support the study of cycles we have created a new Ideas page in the Cycles Scanner that allows Members to share and comment on published workbooks.
Exchanging ideas with other members is a crucial part of learning and improving cycles analysis skills. Share your workbooks, comment on other Member’s workbooks, ask questions.*
You can find the new page in the Cycles Scanner sidebar or click here.
The basic version of the Cycles Scanner is included in the price Membership. Click here to join.
*Published workbooks are in public preview and might be subject to change.
*Published workbooks may be unpublished if they don’t follow page standards – unpublished workbooks will remain in your private ideas section.
*No spam, solicitations, or other inappropriate activities.
The importance of analyzing sentiment cycles of active money managers plays a critical role in assessing financial risk. Dominant cycles in the National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index have been identified with high correlation over the past 15 years. The current state of the dominant cycles indicates a possible reversal for U.S. equity markets.
The Importance of Sentiment Cycles
In 1949, investing legend Benjamin Graham eloquently characterized the cyclical nature of financial markets in his book “The Intelligent Investor”:
“The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism.”
Normally, social mood waxes and wanes positively and negatively. Thus, sentiment waxes and wanes in the form of dynamic cycles. Mood refers to a feeling, emotion, or attitude about something, and, of course, it can have a range of values. Whenever mood is related to corporations or the economy, the character of events will unfold in the related financial assets. Fear and despondency represent one extreme, while thrill and euphoria characterize the other end of the spectrum.
Cycles are the important structure because sentiment does not jump rapidly from one state to another. A change of mood requires time; therefore, sentiment moves in dynamic cycles or waves.The challenge is to spot and predict the extreme turning points observed at market tops (“Maximum Financial Risk” - Euphoria) and at markets lows (“Maximum Financial Opportunity” - Panic).
If you have data sets that provide raw “mood” information related to financial assets on the one hand, and on the other hand have cyclic tools that can decipher and track dominant cycles, we are able to provide supporting market analysis to adjust your active investment risk.
Against this background, a cycle analysis of the NAAIM Exposure Index was performed. The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure of active investment managers to the U.S. equity markets. A value above 100 indicates leveraged long positions. The raw data of this publicly available index is not predictive in nature. However, the exposure index provides insights into the actual risk management of investment managers. In the case that cycles are found in that dataset, it will allow a prediction of future exposure and risk management efforts of that group.
Our performed cycle analysis for the entire NAAIM dataset revealed two dominant cycles: cycles with a length of 73 and 184 weeks. Both cycles were added to a superposition wave, which simply combines both cycles in terms of their phase, amplitude, and length into one combined wave (Chart 1).
Chart 1: Superposition Composite Cycle (73w + 184w) in the NAAIM Exposure Index, S&P500 Index, Data as of Feb. 1 2021
The composite cycle shown is significant because >90% turning points from the exposure index composite cycle correlate with important market reversals. The composite cycle indicated:
- 2007-2009 17-month bear market during the financial crisis
- 2009 market low
- Short-lived bear market between May and October 2011, which was indicated by the high of the sentiment cycle just before Black Monday on Aug. 8, 2011, when the U.S. was downgraded
- 2014-2015 period began with an indicated sentiment cycle top and resulted in a sideways moving market
- 2016 sentiment cycle low, which indicated the start of a truly remarkable year for financial markets
- Predicting the end of the boom in early 2018, with 2018 being a worse year for financial assets. Since January 2, 2018, the S&P has fallen 8% until year end
- Pointing to the start of the next market upswing beginning in early 2019, indicated by the low of the composite cycle with a gain of +60% to date since the indicated December 2018 composite cycle low
Today, at the time of writing, we have reached the next projected composite cycle high for the NAAIM Exposure Index.
Based on the dominant cycle composite analysis of investment managers’ exposure to the U.S. equity markets shown, the current cycle top and past correlations suggest a trend reversal in U.S. equity markets is imminent.
Lars von Thienen
Mr. von Thienen is founder and CEO of a German-based IT management company. He develops algorithms and software for cycle detection at whentotrade.com and has published two books on cycle analysis. He is a Member of the Board of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. Appointed by the Minister of Justice, von Thienen has served as a commercial judge for over a decade in Germany. Von Thienen is based in Germany. email: lars[at]cycles.org
- NAAIM Exposure Index: https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/
- Cycles App: https://cycles.org/