A Note from the Chairman: January 2026

Dr. Richard Smith, FSC Chairman

A Note from the Chairman: January 2026

Dear FSC Friends,

The work of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles has always been grounded in a simple conviction: Markets, economies, and societies move in rhythms shaped by real constraints. Over the past year, that conviction has only strengthened.

Our recent Market Forecast 2026 was the most successful we’ve ever hosted – not just in participation, but in coherence of insight. Across very different analytical styles, a common understanding emerged: We are operating in a late-stage debt and liquidity regime that inflates financial asset prices while steadily hollowing out the real economy. Cycles are being stretched, distorted, and prolonged – not resolved.

Artificial intelligence has entered this environment not as a corrective force, but as an accelerant. AI rewards scale, capital intensity, and data ownership far more than labor or productive capacity. Rather than narrowing inequality, it risks deepening the divide between financial markets and lived economic reality. Policymakers, faced with the consequences of excessive leverage, are increasingly incentivized to protect asset values – further extending cycles and reinforcing distortions.

For investors, this has clear implications. Asset strength should not be mistaken for economic health. Timing risk matters more than ever. Durability, real assets, and exposure to physical and biological constraints deserve renewed attention. Cycles are no longer just signals of opportunity – they are warnings about regime.

Against this backdrop, the Foundation is organizing itself for the next phase. Planning for FSC’s Cycles in the City ‘26 conference is well underway, with strong early momentum and an expanded agenda that reflects where cycles thinking must now go. After the success of the 2025 conference, I didn’t expect we could move faster – but with our footing secure, 2026 is shaping up to be even more substantive.

Our technology platform is also evolving in service of this mission. Expanded data coverage, deeper integration of long-term public series, and new approaches such as cycle swing momentum are all designed to bridge analysis and action, without losing sight of underlying realities.

The FSC archives project also continues to advance, with plans for a spring internship to help preserve and activate nearly a century of cycles research. This work matters because cycles are not a trading trick – they are a language of systems.

Ultimately, the Foundation’s role is not to replace human judgment with computation, but to align natural intelligence with artificial intelligence – tools that sharpen perception rather than obscure it. Cycles remind us that no abstraction escapes reality forever.

It’s about time,
Dr. Richard Smith
Chairman of the Board and Executive Director