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By Lars von Thienen

170-DAY CYCLE IN THE CBOE VOLATILITY (VIX) INDEX

The 170-day cycle, called the sentiment cycle, was initially detected on the Volatility Index (VIX) in October/December 2019. This cycle was published in February 2020 before the drop.

In this graph the VIX or sentiment cycle is opposite the price index (e.g. when the sentiment cycle is low the market is high, when the sentiment cycle is high the market is low). Data as of Feb. 2020:

As seen in the graph below, the 170-day cycle aligns with major turning points in the S&P 500 index for the last 2 years.
Data past Feb. 2020 was not used for the cycle analysis (in light blue).

 

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