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Foundation for the Study of Cycles is registered as a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization. Contributions to the FSC are tax-deductible to the extent permitted by law. The Foundation’s tax identification number is 83-2540831.
The Foundation for the Study of Cycles is a nonprofit research and educational institution dedicated to the interdisciplinary study of recurring patterns in all areas of research. Your generous donation supports continued research for the betterment of our world.
Foundation for the Study of Cycles, PO Box 177, Floyd, VA 24091
Tax information
Foundation for the Study of Cycles is registered as a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization. Contributions to the FSC are tax-deductible to the extent permitted by law. The Foundation’s tax identification number is 83-2540831.
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The Foundation for the Study of Cycles is a registered 501(c)(3) non-profit educational institution. Your contribution is tax-deductible to the extent permitted.
Donate by Mail
Foundation for the Study of Cycles, PO Box 177, Floyd, VA 24091
Tax information
Foundation for the Study of Cycles is registered as a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization. Contributions to the FSC are tax-deductible to the extent permitted by law. The Foundation’s tax identification number is 83-2540831.
The Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC) hosts two major summits annually at the beginning of the year and midyear: Market Forecast and the Financial Cycles Summit.
The events bring together leading cycles practitioners and trading professionals using state-of-the-art cyclical analysis tools.
This year’s midyear summit – six hours over three days – brought a few surprises and even a little controversy. Most importantly, it gave participants succinct and actionable forecasts.
You can watch all of the replays on Cycles TV. Following are brief summaries of each presentation (six in total).
Peter Eliades
The event kicked off with keynote speaker, Peter Eliades, market analyst and founder of Stock Market Cycles newsletter. Eliades is on alert for a crash scenario akin to the historical rhyme pattern of TMT 2000. Most notably, he flagged record concentration risk in tech stocks with NVIDIA’s accounting for 50% of the S&P500 YTD gains. Further broader market fragility is also seen (chart). However, several other experts remained bullish.
Most notably, Bill Sarubbi, FSC Board Member and regular Forbes contributor, recalled the challenges of timing a melt-up phase, citing “too much money is lifting all asset classes”. Conversely, his analysis points to a healthy rotation, with some tech stock bifurcation, coupled with new leadership into areas such as banks and energy. Sarubbi’s composite cycle model remains bullish into Q3 2024 (chart).
Jake Bernstein, FSC Board Member and publisher of Jake Bernstein's Weekly Futures Trading Letter, shared latest market insights using his science-of-trading approach. Additional overlays included price and indicator cycles, divergence, seasonals, sentiment positioning, and patterns. Bernstein remains bullish on commodities across the industrial, precious metals, and agricultural sectors. He expects copper, gold, and wheat to surge into 2026 (chart). In cross-assets, his timing analysis signals a GBPUSD cyclical low and unwind in U.S. rates.
Lars von Thienen, FSC Board Member and host of Market Cycles Report, continued his deep-dive focus on crypto using the FSC's timing model, which marked the recent key inflection points, and included the latest bottom and end of winter season. He reviewed Bitcoin’s 200-day cycle, overlaid seasonal and having cycle data, which signal a tactical unwind. Although a renewed surge is expected into early 2025 followed by another top pattern (chart).
Dr. Richard Smith, FSC Chairman of the Board and Executive Director and host of Trading Market Cycles, highlighted trading beliefs, approach, and short-term cycles. He primarily focused on U.S. equities marked by price-time divergences. Additional strategies included risk management and diversification (chart), which signaled beneficial portfolio exposure to USD.
Andrew Pancholi focused on macro cycles based on the patterns of human behaviour. His analysis continues to warn of multiple disruptive forces as part of a shift from “globalisation to polarisation”. Pancholi warned of revolutionary tensions in the U.S., populist trends across the world (chart), amplified by the 40 elections in 2024. What lies ahead? Expect a rise of so-called black-swan events, amplified by geopolitical tensions and likely war drums.
Meanwhile, as part of the FSC leadership team, I also shared insights, themed on my “behavioural inflection point” thesis, still pressured by a triple whammy of headwinds, momentum extremes, rotation fragility, and cycle asymmetric risk. The U.S. election cycle is also featured, predicting volatility in the coming months ahead (chart).
Ron William, CFTe, is a market strategist and educator/mentor with more than 20 years of experience working for leading macro research and institutional firms, producing tactical research and trading strategies. He specializes in global, multi-asset, top-down framework, grounded in behavioural technical analysis, driven by cycles based on the "Roadmap" signature model of veteran market technician Robin Griffiths, published in his book “Mapping the Markets.”
Ron also applies a "market & mind" approach at IntensiChi, using the latest techniques in behavioral-risk models and neuroscience sourced from expert groups. He further supplements with mentoring/coaching, trained by the International Coaching Federation (ICF), and teaches a regulatory approved masterclass in Applied Behavioral Science, with investment, private banks and CFA Societies.
Ron's primary work, as part of his current institutional market advisory firm (RWA), acquired global industry recognition as winner of “Best FX Research” in 2020. Financial media programs and industry publications regularly feature his market insights, including “Is the big cycle about to turn?”, predicting the 2020 crash and alerting the “Minsky paradigm” of 2020 H2-2022.
Driven by high-integrity education, Ron serves as part of the education committee of the International Federation of Technical Analysts(IFTA), Development Director at the Foundation of the Study of Cycles (FSC), Head of SAMT’s Geneva Chapter, and an honorary member of ESTA. He is also a visiting lecturer at universities, active guest speaker for the CFA, CAIA and CISI, and senior teacher at colleges offering an accredited diploma in trading and investing.
