The Need for Interdisciplinary Cycle Research

Edward R. Dewey, FSC Founder

Journal of Interdisciplinary Cycle Research - Volume 1 (Date Published: 1970)

By Edward R. Dewey
FSC Founder

From the Archives: This article is reposted as it was published in 1970 in the Journal of Interdisciplinary Cycle Research - Volume 1.

Probably more than a thousand scientists, the world over, have studied rhythmic behaviour of one sort or another. They have reported over 500 different sorts of phenomena which have been alleged to fluctuate rhythmically, i.e., in cycles or waves of reasonable regularity. Rhythmic cycles characterize the abundance of animals, the variations of weather, the recurrence of diseases and epidemics, the repetition of basic physiological phenomena, the ups and downs of business, the widths of tree rings, the fluctuations of lake levels, the thickness of sedimentary rock deposits, the outbreak of volcanic eruptions, the occurrence of earthquakes, the number of sunspots, etc., almost endlessly.

The problems of rhythmic behaviour in all these various and unrelated phenomena have, however, one thing in common: The techniques of time series analysis should be largely the same, regardless of the nature of the phenomena being studied. A 9.6-year cycle in wolf abundance in Canada should be studied, statistically, in much the same way as a 9.6-year cycle in the run-off of a river in India.

Moreover, all the various cycles that have been found have one thing in common: When they are statistically significant, i.e., when they have repeated with enough dominance and enough regularity and enough times so that they cannot reasonably be the result of chance, they help us to throw light on the future. They do this whether our interest is in international conflict, immigration, earthquakes, solar radiation, meteorological, economic, biological or medical cycles. However, these two points of similarity in TECHNIQUE and USE are not, by themselves sufficient reason to propagate interdisciplinary cycle research.

When comparative studies are made of the cycles alleged to be present in various scientific fields, it is found that the periods are often the same. This is true not only for phenomena in the same discipline, but for completely unrelated phenomena. Of course, in many instances similarity in cycle periods may occur by sheer coincidence. However, there seems to be a non-chance distribution of the observed periods, i.e., many examples of certain periods are found but few or no examples of other periods. Moreover, cycles with the same period tend to have a turning point at the same calendar time regardless of phenomena or discipline. At this point, cycles become a matter of interdisciplinary concern.

Naturally, some of the cycles that have been alleged are merely accidental regularities of random fluctuations. On the other hand, there are reasons for thinking that many of the cycles are meaningful. For instance, many cycles have high statistical significance; they continue over many repetitions and continue over long spans of time unchanged, despite changed environmental conditions; cycles often dominate the behaviour of animals and man; they often show evidence of geographical patterns, i.e., cycles of the same period, regardless of phenomena, seem to come later and later as found from pole to equator; after distortion, cycles revert to the predistortion phase.

It is often assumed that many of the biological cycles have an endogenous origin. Such endogenous cycles can have high statistical significance, can repeat many times with great regularity, can be dominant, and, by shear coincidence, could have more or less the same period.

On the other hand, it would be extraordinary difficult for cycles of the same period in completely unrelated phenomena to turn at approximately the same time and to have geographical latitude patterns, unless the cause of the regularity were external to the phenomena involved.

The suggestion is thus inescapable that there may be hitherto unsuspected environmental forces which affect terrestrial affairs and determine the time of the ups and downs of many phenomena of interest and concern to mankind. Studies in recent years suggesting very long-term rhythmic fluctuations in a number of biological, medical, and inorganic phenomena strongly support this assumption. Under these circumstances the subject of comparative cycle study would thus seem to be a must for further investigation.

Some people will be interested to explore these possibilities. However, more scientists will prefer to confine their studies to cycles in their own disciplines. People with the latter interest can be most helpful to the major field of interdisciplinary study if they will determine the period of the cycles they study with the greatest possible accuracy; determine, in each instance, its statistical significance; record the latitude and longitude of the phenomenon evidencing the cycle; supply the data; explain the methodology in full; idealize the cycle, and, as important as anything, record the timing of the idealized cycle. Such studies are the bricks of which the larger structure is created.

No one can say whether or not the bricks are more important than the building. We need both. One must work in the area of one's interest. However, if it should be true that there are environmental forces that cause, or at least trigger and/or time the ups and downs of all aspects of human life, it becomes a matter of profound practical and philosophical importance and a challenge for every scientist interested in the broader aspects of the problems of the living world.