Ron William, FSC Development Director

A look at market cycles in 2022

The FSC’s annual Market Forecast proved a great success and marked the largest influx of new members in years! Our leadership team of market experts shared key insights collectively.

Day one featured Jake Bernstein on interest rates, currency, long-term cycles, and more, followed by Bill Sarubbi on U.S. stocks, real estate, and the economy.

Day two offered a more specialized review by Lars Von Thienen on cryptocurrencies and Andrew Pancholi on geopolitical cycles.

Each session offered a unique global, cross-asset perspective of high-conviction opportunities and risks in what has already proven to be a volatile start to the new year!

I was honored to be part of the event, both as host and in my new role of FSC Development Director. It was a great opportunity to be immersed in the study of cycles, using a myriad of complementary techniques, while also learning how to seek alpha during an increasingly VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) world.

Some of my favorite moments include Jake Bernstein’s S-T-F Trading Model – setup, trigger, and follow through – featuring his signature long-term cycles on GBP/USD, predicting a major bottom into 2022. Greater analytical depth is offered on his website

Bill Sarubbi shared his three-cycle schema, comprising of the 10-year (decennial), 4-year (election), and 1-year (annual) seasonality patterns. Interestingly, the composite cycle predicted the recent January 2022 decline in S&P500. But it still favors a recovery rally into April, before declining much further into the summer period, as part of the traditional negative seasonality pattern. Don't miss this in-depth interview with Sarubbi.

Meanwhile, Lars von Thienen showcased FSC’s flagship cycles software, which is being nominated in The Technical Analyst Awards 2022. His cryptocurrency focus included Bitcoin long-term cycles analysis and its 200-day cycle, a review of past and future projections, and a practical strategy for tuning technical analysis with time-cycles.

This segment was a compelling reminder of the importance of synergizing both worlds, a key mission in my dual role shared both with the FSC and International Federation of Technical Analysts. A case-example introduction to my approach using behavioral technical analysis driven by cycles is available for review as an educational resource, including latest market insights on whether the big cycle is turning.

The grand finale was delivered by Andrew Pancholi on geopolitical cycles. This was an intensely packed review of critical risk events that will likely shape our ongoing VUCA landscape in 2022. It was a very insightful review of a major confluence of cycles, notably, the pandemic cycle, signaling a potential unwind that many of us will be grateful to hear. However, ongoing destabilization in the U.S. is also expected, as part of a 250-year cycle that coincides with heightened tensions with China and likely global conflict. A more recent perspective is available, including his market outlook, on this IG media interview.

The summit ended with a high-touch fireside chat with our FSC Chairman, Dr. Richard Smith, focusing on the FSC’s big-picture mission, “to help people understand that we are in the midst of major cycles on the world stage – not just economic, but social and even spiritual cycles.” He reminded us of the importance of appreciating the virtues of both quantitative and qualitative aspects of cycles and ultimately the “mystery of cycles.” Dr. Smith also recalled one of the key chapters in Dewey’s book themed “Cycles In You” and encouraged us all to “look within, see the cycles functioning, see the world through this latest confluence of cycles; but don’t forget your own ability to influence the future!” The work of Wolfgang Smith, a leading philosopher of science, was recommended, including his book The Quantum Enigma and a brief interview with Dr. Smith.

Thanks to our speakers and FSC Members. May we all continue to grow together with “enlightenment through realized knowledge.”