FSC's Roundtable on Gold and other Precious Metals Recap

By Ron William, CFTe, MSTA

Report on FSC's Roundtable on Gold and other Precious Metals

The Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC), hosted a critical roundtable on gold and metals this past summer, featuring five expert speakers, which I moderated as part of the FSC leadership team. This proved an engaging debate, following gold’s lackluster performance YTD, below consensus expectations, including my own, as featured in a media interview earlier this year. Indeed, gold continues to trade in a sideways, volatile price range since early 2021, in what I’ve dubbed a “Bermuda triangle” pattern that should be traded with caution (Figure 1). Note, Gold has broken under this pattern support zone between 1700 and 1680 at time of writing.

Previously gold demonstrated resilience amidst very poor returns for traditional asset classes (Figure 2), reinforcing the yellow metal’s safe-haven and portfolio diversifier virtues.

Our first speaker, Andy Pancholi focused on gold’s technical, seasonal and liquidity trends. One of his big picture charts (Figure 3) highlights an important dynamic regression mean near $1780, with +/- 1 STD at $2260k and $1630.

He warned about a potential inversion on seasonality data which is typically positive between July to September. COT liquidity data was also flagged as a potential contrarian indicator if selling pressure dropped below 200k contracts. A final insight was based on the black swan implications of the 90-year cycle analogue to 1933 for next year, which led to executive or 6102, requiring forms of value such as gold to be delivered to the government. Pancholi asks if crypto could be next?

Peter Eliades followed with ominous crisis analogues of 1842, 1932 and potentially 2022/23, which could spur a deflation crash (Figure 4). Eliades also shared proprietary timing signals, based on Hurst, predicting a decline on Gold and Silver ETFs, with GLD into 147.50-126.67 and SLV to 13.09-9.78.

Bill Sarubbi, a veteran Halkin guest, discussed macro cycle forces, expecting gold to move higher in the short-term, but remain choppy thereafter. He also believes that inflation is likely to increase further due to government spending and that the real estate market is topping and suggests that rising USD headwinds will continue, fueled by ongoing tail-risks (Figure 5).

Jake Bernstein used his science of trading approach, based on the S-T-F model, of “Setup, Trigger and Follow-through” looking at the broader metal complex. His top cycles of interest are copper and palladium, with the latter exhibiting the largest net long position in history. I cited the potential geopolitical substitution effect to platinum cited by media, which he believes could transpire on the market.

Lars von Thienen wrapped up, using the FSC Cycle software, which correctly signaled an interim bottom in July and potential outperformance into year-end (Figure 6). He reminded us that US yield curve inversion is a leading indicator for recession, which could boost gold safe-haven demand.

Thank you to all FSC members for all your kind feedback and insightful questions on our latest FSC Critical Roundtable on Gold. Welcome more interaction on ron.william@cycles.org

Ron William, CFTe

Ron William, CFTe, is a market strategist and educator/mentor with more than 20 years of experience working for leading macro research and institutional firms, producing tactical research and trading strategies. He specializes in global, multi-asset, top-down framework, grounded in behavioural technical analysis, driven by cycles based on the "Roadmap" signature model of veteran market technician Robin Griffiths, published in his book “Mapping the Markets.”

Ron also applies a "market & mind" approach at IntensiChi, using the latest techniques in behavioural-risk models and neuroscience sourced from expert groups. He further supplements with mentoring/coaching, trained by the International Coaching Federation (ICF), and teaches a regulatory approved masterclass in Applied Behavioural Science, with investment, private banks and CFA Societies.

Ron's primary work, as part of his current institutional market advisory firm (RWA), acquired global industry recognition as winner of “Best FX Research” in 2020. Financial media programs and industry publications regularly feature his market insights, including “Is the big cycle about to turn?”, predicting the 2020 crash and alerting the “Minsky paradigm” of 2020 H2-2022.

Driven by high-integrity education, Ron serves as part of the education committee of the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA), Development Director at the Foundation of the Study of Cycles (FSC), Head of SAMT’s Geneva Chapter, and an honorary member of ESTA. He is also a visiting lecturer at universities, active guest speaker for the CFA, CAIA and CISI, and senior teacher at colleges offering an accredited diploma in trading and investing.

Ron William, FSC Development Director