By Ron William, CFTe, MSTA

It's Just Time

Edward R. Dewey, co-founder of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC), had distinguished from his experience of the Great Depression, a “mysterious [cyclic] force” in nature and markets, with the ability to “trigger events,” akin to "Murphy's Law" - whatever can go wrong, will go wrong. Dewey’s book (Figure 1) will be re-published by the FSC soon. More details to follow.

Cycles: The Mysterious Forces that Trigger Events By Edward R. Dewey

Lightning has already struck multiple times in the last few weeks, hit by bank failures, market turmoil, and ongoing economic uncertainty – elevating risk of a Minsky moment. I’ve warned about this for a while, as part of a behavioral crash pattern, fueled by a Ponzi mirage of artificially cheap money. Read CNBC article and FSC blog. Now a crescendo of industry peers are echoing variations of the same thesis, amidst the latest mini panic.

Why now? It’s just time!

Serendipitously, it chimes with a 90-year anniversary of the 1933 banking crisis, literally to the same month! Back then, President Roosevelt set out to rebuild confidence of the nation’s banking system, after many were withdrawing money and hiding it under their proverbial mattresses (Figure 2).

1933 NY Times Headline

Meanwhile, a shorter-term timing overlay can be found in annual cycles, which can bring a marked change not only to the weather but also the surrounding investment landscape.

As the temperatures warm up after the spring equinox (20th March), our seasonality analysis suggests a growing probability for equity markets, notably those with the highest valuations, to be at risk of a major fall into the (autumn) fall of 2023, during late September/early October.

In fact, what the infamous market almanacs have long cited as the seasonal pattern of sell in May and go away (or SIM), suffers its greatest downside risk during the months of June and September (Figure 3). The exact reasons for this seasonal trading pattern are not known. Although other timing patterns may compound.

Spring Equinox SIM Negative Seasonality Pattern Chart

Read my archive FSC blogs on Seasonality Pattern Realign and Seasonality Danger Zone Ahead and watch our FSC event Seasonality in Markets and Nature.

Ultimately, this seasonal peak not only marks the end of the bear-market rally from its October 2022 lows but also a confluence of more powerful and larger cycles. Most notable is our composite cycle model prediction for risk into H2 2023-2024 (Figure 4). Time confluence was also shared with the cycle analysis of Samuel Benner & W.D. Gann (Figure 5). 

Composite Cycle Bottom into 2024 AND Cycle Timing Models 2023-24

Our FSC cycle model, based on spectral analysis, predicts further downside risk (Figure 6).

FSC Cycle Models Signals Imminent Downside Risk

Early confirmation is seen on the benchmark S&P500 Index now unwinding from trend resistance confluence zone between 4130-4090. In starker contrast, the S&P500 equal-weighted index (Figure 7), remains weaker under its 200-dMA and December low.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Remains Weaker Under 200 Day

This highlights the temporary relief-rally effect of mega-cap growth/tech YTD, from previously oversold extremes. However, our cycle analysis of the financial stress index predicts further instability (Figure 8).

Financial Stress Heightened Risk into Year End

It also coincides with the widening of riskier junk bond spreads, and bull-steepening of the US Treasury and German government bond yield curves, as markets price in a less tight monetary policy. Could it be sending a message about the economic growth impacts from bank stress? Only time will tell!

Thank you to all FSC members for all your kind feedback and insightful questions on our FSC blog series. Welcome more interaction on

Ron William, CFTe Bio

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Ron William, CFTe, is a market strategist and educator/mentor with more than 20 years of experience working for leading macro research and institutional firms, producing tactical research and trading strategies. He specializes in global, multi-asset, top-down framework, grounded in behavioural technical analysis, driven by cycles based on the "Roadmap" signature model of veteran market technician Robin Griffiths, published in his book Mapping the Markets.”

Ron also applies a "market & mind" approach at IntensiChi, using the latest techniques in behavioral-risk models and neuroscience sourced from expert groups. He further supplements with mentoring/coaching, trained by the International Coaching Federation (ICF), and teaches a regulatory approved masterclass in Applied Behavioral Science, with investment, private banks and CFA Societies.

Ron's primary work, as part of his current institutional market advisory firm (RWA), acquired global industry recognition as winner of “Best FX Research” in 2020. Financial media programs and industry publications regularly feature his market insights, including “Is the big cycle about to turn?”, predicting the 2020 crash and alerting the “Minsky paradigm” of 2020 H2-2022.

Driven by high-integrity education, Ron serves as part of the education committee of the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA), Development Director at the Foundation of the Study of Cycles (FSC), Head of SAMT’s Geneva Chapter, and an honorary member of ESTA. He is also a visiting lecturer at universities, active guest speaker for the CFA, CAIA and CISI, and senior teacher at colleges offering an accredited diploma in trading and investing.