Whereto for Very Long Climate Cycles?

by Ray Tomes

Whereto for Very Long Climate Cycles?

Western geologists have established that there are very long climate cycles with periods in repeated ratios of two. Russian geologist S.N. Afanasiev has determined one of these cycles periods very accurately using his nanocycles method (translated from the Russian) and gets 586.24 million years.

So it is expected that the cycles periods are:

• 586.24 million years
• 293.12 million years
• 146.56 million years
• 73.28 million years
• 36.63 million years

When long-term records of climate and related variables are studied, such as temperature, atmospheric CO2 and sea level, these periods are clearly evident.

In the Wikipedia article Timeline of glaciation, the descent into icebox/ice-age conditions can be seen about every 146 million years.

(From wikipedia)

An icebox condition is defined as a period when one or both poles are ice bound either by ice-covered continent or permanent sea ice. We are still in such a condition but also in an interglacial, which is a brief period when conditions are warmer for up to about 10,000 years out of every 100,000 years, the rest of which consists of extended snow/ice cover over continents.

Dating these ancient conditions is not easy, but we do have estimates, which place the centers of the recent ice-age events around about:

• 740 million years ago
• 590 million years ago
• 445 million years ago
• 300 million years ago
• 145 million years ago

It is clear that we are in an ice-age event now, but we do not know when the middle of it is. It seems that we are past the middle of these ice ages and might actually be at the end.

If we are not at the end of these ice ages, then we should, by now, already be dipping into the next ice age maybe a few thousand years ago. James Lovelock of “Gaia” fame said that humans could not prevent the next ice age but later stated that he thought we already had prevented it.

If we are at the end of this ice-age period, then we can expect temperatures to rise rapidly as they did around 440 and 290 million years ago. It is quite credible that we are indeed at that point and that far hotter temperatures are in store for the earth over the next few million years.

What does this mean for life? We hear a lot of climate crisis talk recently with predictions of extinctions, but it should first be understood that complex life forms all began during the above graph period and that even mammal species started when the earth was far warmer than it is now.

People have expressed concern over the speed of possible future temperature changes, and this is a valid concern. Ocean life can largely adapt by changing latitudes as they have done before. However, humans have built many obstacles to animal migrations making this more difficult for animals. We have also destroyed many animal habitats and these matters are due serious concern and actions.

If we are now heading toward higher temperatures on the 146.56-million-year cycle, then human actions regarding carbon use are very unlikely to stop that happening – much better to work out how to cope. After all, life has enjoyed those conditions before.

Ray Tomes
FSC Science Director and Board Member

While working in systems software development and economic modeling for prediction, Ray Tomes discovered the importance of cycles. After joining the FSC in the 1980s, he spoke at numerous FSC conferences and ran a unit trust operating in futures markets. While studying cycles full time, he developed Harmonics Theory to explain observed patterns of cycles and the entire structure of the universe. He founded Cycles Research Institute, developed CATS cycles analysis software, and speaks internationally. He now acts as the Science Director on the FSC Board. Tomes is based in New Zealand.