FSC Market Forecast 2024 Recap

By Ron William, CFTe, MSTA

FSC Market Forecast 2024

The Foundation Study for Cycles (FSC) recently hosted Market Forecast 2024, featuring key insights from several leading market experts. The event kicked off with Larry Williams reviewing his non-consensus bullish trades on S&P500 in 2023. Here and now, he forecasts a decline into Q2 2024, marking a volatile mean-reversion environment thereafter (Figure 1). Watch Larry Williams' presentation.

Interestingly, his cycle framework is also used on macro indicators, notably inflation, which correctly predicted the acceleration into 2022 and consequential decline that is now likely to stabilize. This is in-line with my tactical view, although looking ahead, the expectation remains for rolling waves of inflation volatility, akin to the 1970s analogue, marked by rollercoaster equity market price swings and broader geopolitical risk premium.

Lars von Thienen continued his deep dive focus on Crypto, using the FSC's timing model, which marked the recent key inflection points, including the latest bottom and end of winter season, now into summer ahead of the next halfing cycle (Figure 2). A point of great interest for FSC attendees and myself was his discovery of a fractal timing pattern of 5 up, 3 down, akin to the well-known Elliott Wave principle. Watch Lars von Thienen's presentation.

Jake Bernstein shared latest market insights using his science-of-trading approach. Additional overlays included price and indicator cycles, divergence, seasonals, sentiment positioning, and patterns. Bernstein’s bullish headline charts included agricultural commodities such as soy beans and Wheat. He also flagged copper, fuelled by a strong COT positioning build-up (Figure 3) and growing probability for an explosive rise on Palladium. Watch Jake Bernstein's presentation.

Robert Prechter, founder, and president of Elliott Wave International shared latest insights on "Levitating optimism in the stock market" - aptly describing the historic level of irrational exuberance, whereby sentiment will inevitably turn. Divergences across several key market proxies, coupled with key Elliott wave inflection points and related cycle timing, signal likely risk from Q2 onwards. Gold remains bullish for now (Figure 4), but the broader direction of commodities remains an open question amidst polarising forces of inflation-deflation. Watch Robert Prechter's presentation.

Enjoy the post session interview, discussing potential historical rhymes of - including 1929, 1700s and a millennia cycle reverting back to the Roman Empire! More to follow, based on research that I am doing in this area. Additional points of interest, include his read on the 4-year and presidential cycle, ahead of the coming US elections and what reactions to Fed policy likely signal for markets.

Bill Sarubbi analysis favours an equity rally into Jan, turning flat/corrective into Q1, followed by a panic cycle-selling climax in March. Timing is based on his dynamic composite cycle model using the 1-4-10-year pattern (Figure 5). He also still expects growth sectors to continue their trend performance, but likely at a slower rate, with a likely broadening rotation from energy stocks. Watch Bill Sarubbi's presentation.

Stan Harley, a former Top Gun fighter pilot, featured his "market kinematics" framework, demonstrating harmonic cycles in action across key markets, notably US equities, interest rates, gold & Bitcoin. Watch Stan Harley's presentation.

Andrew Pancholi interviewed Akhil Patel and they talked about how the 18.6 year can transform your investment and it’s prediction for a real-estate top into 2025/26 (Figure 6). Watch the presentation.

As part of the FSC leadership team, I also shared insights, themed on “Fly me to the moon & back” sharing key insights on what he themes a “behavioural inflection point”, following the dovish central bank “Fed pivot”, weighed a triple confluence of momentum, sentiment and timing fragility. Major macro markets included S&500, US10YR, Gold, using a range of timing overlays, including our FSC model (Figure 7). Watch the presentation.

Review all FSC Market Forecast 2024 presentations here.

Thank you to all FSC members for all your kind feedback and insightful questions on our FSC blog series. Welcome more interaction on ron.william@cycles.org

Ron William, CFTe Bio

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Ron William, CFTe, is a market strategist and educator/mentor with more than 20 years of experience working for leading macro research and institutional firms, producing tactical research and trading strategies. He specializes in global, multi-asset, top-down framework, grounded in behavioural technical analysis, driven by cycles based on the "Roadmap" signature model of veteran market technician Robin Griffiths, published in his book “Mapping the Markets.”

Ron also applies a "market & mind" approach at IntensiChi, using the latest techniques in behavioral-risk models and neuroscience sourced from expert groups. He further supplements with mentoring/coaching, trained by the International Coaching Federation (ICF), and teaches a regulatory approved masterclass in Applied Behavioral Science, with investment, private banks and CFA Societies.

Ron's primary work, as part of his current institutional market advisory firm (RWA), acquired global industry recognition as winner of “Best FX Research” in 2020. Financial media programs and industry publications regularly feature his market insights, including “Is the big cycle about to turn?”, predicting the 2020 crash and alerting the “Minsky paradigm” of 2020 H2-2022.

Driven by high-integrity education, Ron serves as part of the education committee of the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA), Development Director at the Foundation of the Study of Cycles (FSC), Head of SAMT’s Geneva Chapter, and an honorary member of ESTA. He is also a visiting lecturer at universities, active guest speaker for the CFA, CAIA and CISI, and senior teacher at colleges offering an accredited diploma in trading and investing.