Market Cycles Outlook With Bill Sarubbi: September 2025

Bill Sarubbi, FSC Board Member

Market Cycles Outlook With Bill Sarubbi: September 2025

By Bill Sarubbi, FSC Board Member

cyclesresearch.com

The U.S. stock market indices are likely headed higher into January. There are four reasons for this projection.

First, this is a year ending in a 5, the strongest year in the 10-year decennial pattern as developed by Edgar Laurence Smith at Ameritrust Bank. All questions in such "5" years are resolved on the upside. September has been the weakest month in any year, but this bearish month has closed on the upside 66% of the time in these "5" years. The weakest part of September has been the second half of the month, especially the last week. This period could present favorable buying opportunities.

DJIA Histogram of Expected Return in Years Ending in 5

Second, the combination of the 1-, 4- and, 10-year cycles is rising. The first cycle is the annual cycle in any year from 1885. The 4-year cycle has been called the election year cycle. Their summation is below.

1, 4, and 10-Year Cycles in 2025

Third, the dynamic cycle depicted below rises into January. This "catch all" approach accumulates the effect on the S&P of the strongest cycles. It detects cycles that may not be represented by the prior cycles.

S&P Monthly Cycle

And fourth, 60% of all S&P gains have been generated in Q4 of any year.

In order to project a price level, the height of the rectangle from which the S&P 500 broke out is projected up. This points to a price target of 7460.

S&P Daily

What stock should be considered for purchase for Q4? Below is a list of the S&P 100 stock sorted by a unique measure of relative strength. These shares are likely to extend their gains.

Bill Sarubbi Bio
cyclesresearch.com

Bill Sarubbi obtained his BS in 1971 and his MBA in 1972 from NYU, becoming a member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in the same year. He trained as a therapist under the direction of Dr. John Pierrakos in New York for nine years. From 1972 to 1990 he worked on the buy and sell sides of Wall Street as an analyst with the Value Line Investment Survey, as an institutional broker, and as a technical strategist with PaineWebber. From 1990 to 2004 Sarubbi was with the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, where he was a technology fund manager, North American strategist, and member of the currency hedging committee. Since 2004 he has been operating his own money management and consulting service. In the course of his work, he developed unique market analysis software. Sarubbi is a Forbes contributor and is active in groups that focus on the future and on cycles, including the Kenos Circle, a Vienna-based group of futurists. Sarubbi is based in Vienna.

NOTE: Prepared by FSC Board Member Bill Sarubbi. The views expressed are his own and not investment advice. This article is intended exclusively to provide information and education to help individuals better understand cycles and the markets. However, this information is not to be construed as professional advice as to the buying and selling of securities or other investment instruments. In no event does the host express any opinion with respect to, or make recommendations regarding, the purchase or sale of any particular security or other investment instrument. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities, and buying or selling decisions are solely within the personal discretion of each individual.